A mere two months prior that the young forward was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager scolded him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star curled home his second strike to restore Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, now sit only three points behind the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant in many games, even as the wins have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to bail them out with two precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the most significant challenge the club have to face as the season progresses. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The attacking talent might become the performer he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky backline.
This could contain the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a title charge while looking like an essential Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
